Early is as Early does.

And getting up at 4:30 on a Saturday and a Sunday, just doesn't seem right.

Well, nothing new or exciting to report yet. I'm in early today waiting on the production side of the house to give us a call and tell us that we're cleared to start working. Sure, we might not start working until 8 am, but that's not the point... we were here at 5:45 am, just in case.

At least I have Skippy the iPod. Actually, the iPod has been giving me a head scratcher of a math problem based on it's shuffle mode play. This, come to find out, isn't a "Jason-specific" quandary. I did a Google search on "iPod probability question" and came up with quite the list. None-the-less, the quest is not complete without an answer, so here is the question:

Subject:
Odd's; a.k.a. Probability.

Knowns:
I have (currently) 5,558 songs on my iPod.
I tend to listen to this grand sum of music in Shuffle mode.
Every time I plug in my iPod to the computer, Shuffle mode is reset.
The average number of songs listened to in shuffle mode before reset is: 200 (of 5558).

Assumptions:
Perfect randomization (no need to fret over the actual algorithm, and Apple would--and does--deny any tinkering with the mathematics).
In quantity, I have listened to 200 shuffled songs, i.e. one "shuffle cycle", 15 times.

Solve:
On the 16th shuffle cycle, what is the probability that I will hear a song that I've already heard in a previous shuffle cycle?
What is the probability I'll hear a song a third time I've already heard twice over the past 15 shuffle cycles?
... the probability I'll hear a song the fourth time?

I have not heard a song five times yet. But if you're feeling froggy, you can calculate that out for me, too. Or at least tell me how to set up the problem.

Don't you wish you had such exciting thoughts at the crack of morn'in? Yeah, me too.

Okay, I got the call, I'm off to work!